As the 2017 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum comes to a close, two very clear themes emerged in the keynote speeches and debates on the fringe. That may on the surface seem contradictory. They highlight the growing complexity of our times and the forces that will shape our lives both short and longer-term.
Which have been further complicated, or disrupted, by an incoming President of the USA who is proudly protectionist and a Chinese leader supporting economic globilsation as Xi Jingpin did in Davos.
1. Technology vs. Society
The relationship between society and technology is becoming ever more complex.
WEF speakers were both championing the potential of technology to transform quality of life and living standards, as well as repairing our democracy and communities. However, there is now a growing narrative, critiquing the impact of technology.
The shift away from the unquestioning embrace of 'new' technology as a panacea to our social and economic pains - lifestyle or more fundamental - raises fresh challenges for business.
Companies from Alphabet and Amazon through to tomorrow's start-ups may find sharp changes in the social and political climate in which they do business. Whether the tech sector will move from hero brand to anti-brand status overnight would seem unlikely. But in 5 to 10 years time we will have been living with the impact of these firms - their use of AI - and society might be critical of their influence and impact. This could stimulate political interference, effecting their businesses license-to-operate and permission-to-grow.
Martin Ford (@MFordFuture) captured this issue. In 'The Rise of the Robots', he offered a challenging vision of the future with a stark warning that the rapid advances in AI require a rethink of key political and economic structures or we face mass unemployment (and a rise in related social problems). This view is provocative, but becoming less polemical and now very much an issue for WEF participants.
So is AI a good thing? It is inevitable. As is growing social and economic interconnectedness. The smarter question, is how will business and government prepare societies for the impact of AI. That is the challenge and opportunity for political and corporate leaders. The countries and companies that think and plan ahead will be better able to leverage technological breakthroughs for the good of society and the economy. In short, the question for our times, is how you are being the disruptor, not the disrupted?
2. Economic Confidence + Political Uncertainty
The mood at WEF was one of optimism about the prospects for the global economy. The conversation was not dominated by talk of a 'crisis'. Which marks a break with recent years, certainly following the financial meltdown in 2008/9. However, more than at any time since the financial collapse, the so-called 'global elite' is preoccupied with some political 'unknowns' - generating political uncertainty.
2.1. The impact upon the EU of The UK exit.
The response to the departure of the UK will make or break the EU. As yet, it is unclear, whether we are witnessing the slow disintegration of the EU; or a restructuring of the EU which will strengthen the institution. Clearly it needs to deal with the fundamental challenge to its legitimacy and purpose. However, the EU not only faces critical tests from within, but from without. Not least from the geo-political ambitions of Vladimir Putin.
2.2.Putin's next move and his 'end game'.
The Russian President sees national advantage in creating international uncertainty. This modus operandi is not going to change. However, he does want to see the sanctions lifted. So he may be prepared to do a deal which may curb his propensity for any dramatic geo-political activity in 2017.
2.3.The domestic and international policies of the (first-term) Trump Administration.
Policy and political conventions are about to be reset. Trumps cabinet, advisors and leading bureaucrats are diverse in terms of professional experience. They are not steeped in Washington protocol or etiquette. This, of course, is why Trump appealed to voters and in part why he was elected. Unpredictable leaders in the White House (and the Kremlin) at the same time, is a perfect storm in global policy terms. Locking in uncertainty which is typically unwelcome in the Boardroom. However, having a businessman as President is being welcomed (privately) by CEOs who believe Trump will create a positive climate for business to succeed.
So while economic confidence maybe high, perhaps uniquely, so is political uncertainty.