1. We're All Brexiteers Now
Although the 'Brexit Election' has been dominated by terrorist atrocities, it is worth noting how quickly the population has adjusted to the prospect of life outside the EU. The issue itself did not generate much debate during the campaign. Most voters, like most MPs, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum in June 2016, seem to have accepted the new reality. The pre-election debate and distinction between a so-called ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ Brexit will rumble on. It is not clear if, or when, this may tip into being a national conversation. Labour, unlike the Tories, did not seek to make Brexit a central theme of their campaign, preferring to focus on public sector issues. Whilst the debate about the terms of departure may have failed to ignite, the issue does concern voters, with Mrs May regarded as the most credible candidate for the job of negotiating an exit.
Looking ahead, the terms of exit will be contentious. The economic future uncertain. So we can expect them to both be the backdrop to - and possibly dominate - the next general election.
2. The Return of the Two-Party State The UK voter seems set to squeeze all the smaller parties in Westminster, returning the Conservative and Labour Parties to dominant positions. The Liberal Democrats misread the country - their anti-Brexit tone failed to translate into support. And robbed of their populist cause and leader, support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) fell away. Mrs May is set to gain the majority of the 4 million votes cast for Nigel Farage's UKIP in the 2015 general election. Holding onto this cohort is key to building a new Conservative coalition, (and 'blue collar Conservatism').
Turning the north Blue, has long been a Conservative aspiration. Were the May years to deliver such a transformation, the repercussions for the Labour Party would be very stark. Moreover, it would mark a fundamental social and political realignment in Britain. Just as important, is whether the May platform appeals north of the border in Scotland, as well as in the north of England. Any kind of comeback in Scotland is a comeback for the Conservatives. The extent to which this can be ascribed to Mrs May, Ruth Davidson, or growing SNP disquiet is unclear. However, the faltering SNP does make a second independence referendum far less likely.
3. A 'Strong and Stable' Politics?
The outcome of the election is predicted to deliver a strong mandate for the Conservative Party. Which should drive a more predictable and stable political climate, at least in the short-term.This will be welcomed by businesses who will not want to minimise other variables - whilst trying to ride the Brexit rollercoaster. A heavy defeat for Labour is priced in to the markets. Therefore, if Mr Corbyn has a strong showing - and especially if the Conservatives are denied a healthy parliamentary majority - there will be considerable market turbulence. With significant ramifications for economic confidence The bottom line: Mrs May does need to increase her majority in line with pollster expectations. Failure to meet expectations risks creating political instability. If the Conservative result/ victory is very weak, it could weaken the currency and the economy.
4. Strengths and Weakness of Being 'On Message'
The country has got to know Mrs May in the last few weeks. They have also go to know her key message: only she can provide "strong and stable" leadership going into the Brexit negotiations. This is a testimony to her message discipline and the Conservative campaign plan. There are two important lessons to take from this experience. First. Just as it is important for leaders to be able to communicate what they stand for and what they believe; equally, it is important that they are seen to live up to their own brand promise. The social care announcement and the subsequent ‘clarification’ - or u-turn - following the reversal of the position on National Insurance, led to criticism of the Tory leadership for inflicting instability and lacking conviction.
The opposite can of course be claimed, the stronger the leadership, the more open they are to listen and to change their positions. Second. Voter resistance to 'message discipline' is increasing. This has been apparent in the U.K. And other recent elections. As the UK campaign reached the mid-point, political pundits began challenging the repeated and rigid use of the Conservative campaign slogan. The extent to which pundits lead, or reflect, popular opinion is unclear. Either way, resistance and weariness at the Party's commitment to message discipline became a national talking point. The fact that Mrs May was unfairly dubbed 'Maybot', will serve as a warning to aspirant leaders strategists and spin doctors. Whilst it is important to maintain consistency and clarity about priorities and purpose, it is equally important to demonstrate agility and a keen sense of empathy for the mood of the media and the public. A significant outcome of this aspect of the campaign could be a changing style of communication and campaigning in future contests.
5. Era for Big, Not Timid Politics
The febrile atmosphere of a general election campaign ensures that it is a tricky time to launch policies. Especially, if they are difficult to explain in simple terms, or require some kind of pre-suasion. The reaction to the Conservative social care policy announcement is a good case in point. Tackling the rising costs - and expectations - of the welfare state is critical to managing the nation’s finances. The big hope, is that the noisy reaction to one manifesto commitment does not drive an era of political timidity. Not least as the next government faces a range of significant challenges at home and abroad. Including, the prospect of tightening tax receipts, meeting rising security and social costs whilst protecting a myriad of ring-fenced departmental budgets. Making tough choices about how to tax and spend and invest is crucial to the future prosperity of the country. So a healthy majority is important for dealing, successfully, with a range of socio-economic matters, as well as Brexit. Without it (and setting aside the question of civil service readiness), one wonders about the ability - and appetite - of Ministers to drive reform, and the next Prime Minister to set the agenda.
6. The New War on Terror
The UK is resolute in the face of adversity. The response to the recent and random terror attacks is a sober case in point. Political leaders are attempting to respond and capture the mood of the country. Both Parties are casting around for explanations and answers. Mrs May has sought to highlight the international dynamic and involve Big Tech as part of the solution. Her cry of “enough is enough” is poignant and is now being matched with new strategies, tactics and powers to prevent further atrocities. Mr Corbyn kept it local, trying to make Mrs May's record and judgement the issue. The irony is stark and should not be lost, representing a complete reversal on where the campaign started.
Whomever wins, more attacks can be expected and so is some sort of legislative response. Politicians have to be seen to be doing something. The stakes for all of us are very high.