The choices facing the parties and the voters have not been this stark for 40 years. The UK is facing unprecedented peace-time challenges. This is complicated by the fact that the Governing Party does not have a healthy majority. It is not united. It feels defeated. The Conservatives now face three fundamental fault-lines:
First Faultline: Deliver Brexit + Promote Liberal Views
The Conservative Government wants to be seen as a champion of liberal social and economic values. To do so, it is faced with reconciling two seemingly contradictory positions: withdrawing political and economic cooperation from EU countries, whilst engaging and pursuing deeper relations with nations beyond the EU. The positive ‘Global Britain’ narrative is not yet defining the Party brand. Instead, it is perceived as being pro-Brexit - which is becoming a short-hand for a regressive kind of politics. As a result, the Party needs to pivot and distinguish between fighting for a positive deal and being pro-withdrawal. This is politically fraught. However, the Conservative Party needs to define itself by what it is for not what it is against. And avoid being defined by, i.) the battle-lines of the referendum: Remain vs. Leave; and ii.) the hard politics of ‘a hard Brexit’. If living standards fall (further), Brexit will be blamed and if the Party is seen as an apologist for Brexit (aka, falling living standards), the voters will seek their revenge. Not least those that thought Brexit was in their economic self-interest. Second, if the Party replaces Mrs May in 2018 with a Brexiteer, such a negative position could be compounded. There is an upside, a Brexiteer will have greater levels of ‘political permission’ to soften Brexit if that is required to boost flagging economic growth.
Second Faultline: Being Pro-Consumer + Defending Markets
Conservatives are united by several things, one is a resolute belief in the capitalist system being able to deliver a higher standard of living for the many not the new. This is not fashionable. It is counter-intuitive for many voters, who feel that they’re not heard by a Governing class, that favours ‘a system’ denying them a stake in society and the economy. As such they are moved to support extreme positions such as Brexit and Corbynism who they see as the answer/ antidote. By defending markets, conservative politicians can reduce their electoral appeal when they appear to deprioritise the rights and plight of the consumer. This perception is compounded when politcians talk-down well intentioned, but flawed policy ideas, designed to deliver pro-consumer outcomes. Voters do not typically evaluate the merits of the critique. Rather the impact: a defence of the status quo - which they do not judge to be serving their interests. When politicians defend markets, or rebuff ways to increase consumer rights, it sends a negative signal. When they speak out about inequities in markets, or more broadly ‘change’, voters believe they understand their concerns (they make gut-values connections). Conservatives need to concede the limits of markets, alongside positive policies to empower citizens, so as to help renew confidence in capitalism.
Third Fault-line: Social Meritocracy + Economic Empowerment
The Conservative Party believes in celebrating individuality, creativity and social mobility. In many ways it is the Party of social meritocracy. Or, to use a more modern term: Disruption. However, as a brand it is seen by some as the Party of social privilege, elites and defiant defenders of the status quo. This ignores many progressive social and economic achievements in Office, including supporting millions of entrepreneurs who create wealth and jobs. And enrich millions of citizens by liberating state held assets through the right-to-buy scheme and privatisations. During this decade (1980s) the Conservatives disrupted politics and forged a powerful electoral coalition. The Party of today, needs to do likewise. The Conservatives need to wrest the mantle from Labour, as ‘the party of change’. In spirit and policy the Party needs to be restless and impatient for social and economic empowerment. Without such an agenda and narrative, the Conservatives will always be responding to their political opponents and events.
Part 2. Considers when Corbynsim will peak and the 3 defining Labour Fault-lines
Malcolm Gooderham